Both the ROK and Japan though are cases where the US "pivoting to Asia" from Europe would make them less, not more, likely to pursue such a breakout. And in both cases, their incentives has existed prior to Ukraine.
That wasn't a super realistic consideration until a few weeks ago.
This hasn't stopped ROK from thinking the Biden Administration wouldn't come to its aid if push came to shove.
I see your point but the effect is going to be much, much less "discrete" and more "diffuse" if at all.
I'll buy you a beer if ROK or Japan have a nuke in 10 years.
Both the ROK and Japan though are cases where the US "pivoting to Asia" from Europe would make them less, not more, likely to pursue such a breakout. And in both cases, their incentives has existed prior to Ukraine.