Government spending drove a material amount of inflation during the pandemic, but other factors contributed as well (expectations, supply chain dysfunction, corporate profits).
I disagree. We'd have Trump regardless. Prices are an excuse, these voters are voting their identity, their tribalism, and their bitterness.
Look no further than every interview with a regretful Trump voter: "I didn't think I'd lose my job." "I didn't they they would deport my family member." This is no different than "The only moral abortion is my abortion." Unless they are personally impacted by the policy, they vote their harmful belief system.
> “He’s not hurting the people he needs to be”: a Trump voter says the quiet part out loud
> these voters are voting their identity, their tribalism, and their bitterness
Agree for the Rust Belt not for swing voters who didn’t vote Trump in ‘16 and ‘20.
The history of inflation and electorates is my only evidence, this time may have been different, but I’d need to see something beyond anecdotes to conclude that when voters said the economy was their issue [1] they were lying.
I’d love to see a breakdown of these factors in tipping-point states if you have it.
I suppose a counterpart bias to conspiratorial thinking is taking as faith the wisdom of crowds. Perhaps this election was mass delusion and an argument for electoral restraint (which I’m sympathetic to).
But even if I concede that overstimulus didn’t cause Trump, I think it’s fair to say it did cause voters to blame Biden for inflation.
It's a good ask for obvious reasons. Let me chat with someone I know at Pew Research and see if I can provide anything material, and if not, what it's going to gather the data (if at all possible).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/10/09/inflatio...
https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/federal-spendi...
https://globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/portal/insigh...
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/covid-19-inflation-was-a-...
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/on-inflation-its-the-mono...
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/corporate-profits-drive-6...