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It is funny seeing this thread's title compared to the disclaimer right on the title page (specifically that the numbers in this report are NOT an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed):

>Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

Actually, it says that in the first sentence of the second paragraph on OP's link too:

>GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.




Seems like a disclaimer more than anything.

GDPNow is a forecast.

And it's a forecast coming from the Atlanta Fed.

The fact it's not "official" means what exactly?


> fact it's not "official" means what exactly?

It means no humans in the loop. GDPNow is a tracking model designed for reading by experts.

In this case, the context is the ISM Manufacturing report recorded a surge of imports while corresponding inventory numbers are still coming in. Once they do, the model will rebalance.

To the extent the model is saying something, it’s that we need to watch inventories, particularly in construction.


It means they’re not prepared to stand behind it and stake their reputation on it.




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