>There is almost certainly at least one person in Redmond working on this that’s smarter and better informed than you, just going off probability.
this isn't the actual test though right? it's surely true, and yet companies make bad decisions all the time. It needs to be conditioned on "someone smarter and better informed than you _with influence in the organization sufficient to enact change_"
Yeah the guy who designed the Courier for Microsoft was smarter and better informed than me, the problem is he was smarter and better informed than his leadership at microsoft who canned the project in favour of doing nothing, messing around with nokia, and ending up with a watered down product years too late in terms of the surface.
I can tell you for certain about quite a few people like that who are no longer working in Redmond because they have been canned in the last wave of layoffs.
There is almost certainly at least one person in Redmond working on this that’s smarter and better informed than you, just going off probability.