op exhibited a point where if we do not know what we do not know--the estimates are always off by many order of several magnitudes.

if op consulted an experienced plumber--the estimates would be off probably by an addition hour.

if a junior dev estimates, yup, I can change the API endpoint in 10 minutes, he'll be wronged by the nuances of several intermediate steps:

- code

- review / merge

- deploy to qa

- qa testing

- deploy to staging

- deploy to prod

likewise for plumbing: "mom, i plugged the leak with a band-aid."