Fascinating. I'll check back in with this HN account in 2040 then just for kicks.

I like HN because you can have interesting discussions, and because people usually argue their points.

I think this is the first time that someone has responded to me in such a mean-spirited way, while providing no substantive response.

I would prefer if you left this forum.

There's nothing mean-spirited about asking people to put rough numbers to their beliefs, even approximately. But I do think most people would be genuinely surprised to hear you think there's over a 5% chance Germany the Western democracy won't exist in a generation. If it does happen I need to remember to revisit a lot of things about how I myself understand the world.