> If such discussions only made when LLMs make strides in the benchmark then it's not just about beating the benchmark but also what kind of system is beating it.
I still don't understand the point you are making. Nobody is arguing that discrete program search is AGI (and the same counter-arguments would apply if they did).
> If you change your definition of AGI the moment a test is beaten then yes, you are simply post moving.
I don't think anyone changes their definition, they just erroneously assume that any system that succeeds on the test must do so only because it has general intelligence (that was the argument for chess playing for example). When it turns out that you can pass the test with much narrower capabilities they recognize that it was a bad test (unfortunately they often replace the bad test with another bad test and repeat the error).
> If you care about other impacts like "Unemployment" and "GDP rising" but don't give any time or opportunity to see if the model is capable of such then you don't really care about that and are just mindlessly shifting posts.
We are talking about what models are doing now (is AGI here now) not what some imaginary research breakthroughs might accomplish. O3 is not going to materially change GDP or unemployment. (If you are confident otherwise please say how much you are willing to wager on it).
I'm not talking about any imaginary research breakthroughs. I'm talking about today, right now. We have a model unveiled today that seems a large improvement across several benchmarks but hasn't been released yet.
You can be confident all you want but until the model has been given the chance to not have the effect you think it won't then it's just an assertion that may or may not be entirely wrong.
If you say "this model passed this benchmark I thought would indicate AGI but didn't do this or that so I won't acknowledge it" then I can understand that. I may not agree on what the holdups are but I understand that.
If however you're "this model passed this benchmark I thought would indicate AGI but I don't think it's going to be able to do this or that so it's not AGI" then I'm sorry but that's just nonsense.
My thoughts or bets are irrelevant here.
A few days ago I saw someone seriously comparing a site with nearly 4B visits a month in under 2 years to Bitcoin and VR. People are so up in their bubbles and so assured in their way of thinking they can't see what's right in front of them, nevermind predict future usefulness. I'm just not interested in engaging "I think It won't" arguments when I can just wait and see.
I'm not saying you are one of such people. I just have no interest in such arguments.
My bet ? There's no way i would make a bet like that without playing with the model first. Why would I ? Why Would you ?
> I'm not talking about any imaginary research breakthroughs. I'm talking about today, right now.
I explicitly said so was I. I said today we don’t have large impact societal changes that people have conventionally associated with the term AGI. I also explicitly talked about how I don’t believe o3 will change this and your comments seem to suggest neither do you (you seem to prefer to emphasize that it isn’t literally impossible that o3 will make these transformative changes).
> If however you're "this model passed this benchmark I thought would indicate AGI but I don't think it's going to be able to do this or that so it's not AGI" then I'm sorry but that's just nonsense.
The entire point of the original chess example was to show that in fact it is the correct reaction to repudiate incorrect beliefs of naive litmus test of AGI-ness. If we did what you are arguing then we should accept AGI having occurred after chess was beaten because a lot of people believed that was the litmus test? Or that we should praise people who stuck to their original beliefs after they were proven wrong instead of correcting them? That’s why I said it was silly at the outset.
> My thoughts or bets are irrelevant here
No they show you don’t actually believe we have society transformative AGI today (or will when o3 is released) but get upset when someone points that out.
> I'm just not interested in engaging "I think It won't" arguments when I can just wait and see.
A lot of life is about taking decisions based on predictions about the future, including consequential decisions about societal investment, personal career choices, etc. For many things there isn’t a “wait and see approach”, you are making implicit or explicit decisions even by maintaining the status quo. People who make bad or unsubstantiated arguments are creating a toxic environment in which those decisions are made, leading personal and public harm. The most important example of this is the decision to dramatically increase energy usage to accommodate AI models despite impending climate catastrophe on the blind faith that AI will somehow fix it all (which is far from the “wait and see” approach that you are supposedly advocating by the way, this is an active decision).
> My bet ? There's no way i would make a bet like that without playing with the model first. Why would I ? Why Would you ?
You can have beliefs based on limited information. People do this all the time. And if you actually revealed that belief it would demonstrate that you don’t actually currently believe o3 is likely to be world transformative
>You can have beliefs based on limited information. People do this all the time. And if you actually revealed that belief it would demonstrate that you don’t actually currently believe o3 is likely to be world transformative
Cool...but i don't want to in this matter.
I think the models we have today are already transformative. I don't know if o3 is capable of causing sci-fi mass unemployment (for white collar work) and wouldn't have anything other than essentially a wild guess till it is released. I don't want to make a wild guess. Having beliefs on limited information is often necessary but it isn't some virtue and in my opinion should be avoided when unnecessary. It is definitely not necessary to make a wild guess about model capabilities that will be released next month.
>The entire point of the original chess example was to show that in fact it is the correct reaction to repudiate incorrect beliefs of naive litmus test of AGI-ness. If we did what you are arguing then we should accept AGI having occurred after chess was beaten because a lot of people believed that was the litmus test?
Like i said, if you have some other caveats that weren't beaten then that's fine. But it's hard to take seriously when you don't.
I still don't understand the point you are making. Nobody is arguing that discrete program search is AGI (and the same counter-arguments would apply if they did).
> If you change your definition of AGI the moment a test is beaten then yes, you are simply post moving.
I don't think anyone changes their definition, they just erroneously assume that any system that succeeds on the test must do so only because it has general intelligence (that was the argument for chess playing for example). When it turns out that you can pass the test with much narrower capabilities they recognize that it was a bad test (unfortunately they often replace the bad test with another bad test and repeat the error).
> If you care about other impacts like "Unemployment" and "GDP rising" but don't give any time or opportunity to see if the model is capable of such then you don't really care about that and are just mindlessly shifting posts.
We are talking about what models are doing now (is AGI here now) not what some imaginary research breakthroughs might accomplish. O3 is not going to materially change GDP or unemployment. (If you are confident otherwise please say how much you are willing to wager on it).