It's interesting that everywhere, the government forces simply abandoned their posts, and none of Syria's allies appear to be willing to intervene in any way. Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.
> Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.
We know whats going on, the world was just focused elsewhere when this all started and suddenly spiraled.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham launched a run of the mill offensive on November 27 in retaliation to SAA attacks and it turned out to be so successful that the Kurdish SDF launched its own offensive on November 29 to take advantage of the situation. Within a week almost every rebel group joined in, the SAA lines of defense broke down, and Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah support disintegrated and evacuated from the country.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some intelligence agencies greased the wheels here but this was mostly dominoes suddenly falling thanks to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East sapping military resources and a single spark lighting the powder keg.
Plus Hezbollah has been beheaded and Iran attacked by Israel and Russia over-extended by its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey has also been involved in this because they don't want the Kurds to have a state, but HTS seems to have managed to form a coalition for now.
There was also reports of US strafing attacks on columns of some SAA forces (and possibly IRGC) but that seems to have disappeared in the rapid events.
The existing government is trying to stay relevant, the current PM is in Damascus and is promising to work with whoever forms the new leadership. That might just be because he didn't escape and wants to stay out of jail.
Israel (and Russia) have been rumoured to have tried to destroy all the stocks of chemical and other weapons.
Russia will be desperate to hang on to its naval base at Tartus, but that seems to be wishful thinking, but maybe it can make a deal.
My first thought was can't they just send a couple or so aircraft carrier groups into the Mediterranean and adequately project power into Africa from them...then I looked up Russia's aircraft carriers.
They only have one, which has been having problems and has been out of service since around 2018, with repair being hampered by accidents and embezzlement. It was supposed to finally get back in service this year but that doesn't seem likely.
Maybe if your leader is a dictator and it looks like you are losing, defecting might be a better option than fighting to the death for a leader who doesn't care about you.
I’m very interested in reading the book but it certainly seems like Russia and Iran propped up a zombie admin that is actually totally hollow when push comes to shove and the benefactors are busy elsewhere
Except Syria has a completely different history and population, being Arab, is nothing like Afghani people.
Assad was an evil dictator and his father before him, but Syria had a stable government and bureaucracy etc until the civil war. It was a functioning state.
There are sects and regional populations in Syria, the Kurds, Alawites (Assad's group), Sunni, Christian. It's more that they will have to accommodate the regional and religious groups in their government.
Musk sells more Teslas and makes more batteries in China than everywhere else except US. So thinking that Trump will be "anti-China" is wishful thinking. Last time, China didn't suffer, but US farmers had to be bailed out.
Russia is the bad actor here, and Trump has never had a bad word to say about Putin.
Oh and the BRICS trying to get off the USD is just wishful thinking as well. Ask Russia what its like trying to sell oil to India and getting paid in INR.
Russia is already a vassal state to either CN or IN, they'll fight over the resources.
I think the timeline of failures was something like this:
1. Russia, being too entrenched in Ukraine, wanted some global focus shifted away from Ukraine, and managed to get Hamas (probably via Iran) to attack Israel last October. This would predictably become a very hot issue - especially in the US - and make the world "forget" Ukraine. There's been a lot of writing that the support for the Ukraine war will only last as long as there's mainstream focus on it, and that no new wars pop up.
2. The Gaza plan failed. Israel attacks Hezbollah and Iran, which means neither of those can help Syria. The retaliation from Israel was too strong.
3. Vital support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah is now severely limited.
And that's pretty much that. The rebels in Syria saw their opportunity, and seized it.
What's more, is that Syria has long been an important supply route for Iran and Hezbollah. With rebel control, which is anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah, this will have much wider-reaching impact.
Hamas attacked Israel the day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. While the October 7th attack may have benefitted Russia indirectly (temporarily at least), it's not particularly likely that Russia played any role in making it happen.
There's nothing in there that particularly suggests that they promted the attack. But of course they capitalized as best they could off of the distraction.
I mean, plausible deniability is a cornerstone of Russia's hybrid warfare against the west... They want us to feel and "know" they did it while not being able to 100% prove it...
