The Internet says 50% of US buyers are identified democrats, YMMV for internet stats. That number doesn't seem stupid -- EVs are progressive, environmentalist, anti-establishment.
Tesla's stock is a huge bubble. It's worth the next 10 car companies combined! Yes there's a ton of AI speculation in there, but fundamentally the company's stock is about geometric growth in sales.
The most important customer to a car company is their current ones, since those have a very high chance of being loyal to the brand when they buy again.
Tesla is a company that does almost no advertising. Maybe that's because the press gives them enough hype, but I suspect there is a huge degree of passionate advocacy. I should know, I ... was ... a strong advocate for Tesla. I still am for EVs, but they were one and the same with Tesla for 20 years.
A subtle thing happened with the Tesla owners I know. They went from advocating for their car, to rationalizing it, within the span of six months. I don't think it is a stretch to say that Tesla owners were passionate advocates for their vehicles. All progressive, environmentalist people I know are now hell-nos.
Point is, Tesla is stock bubble. Their sales are already down this year, and I'm picking up the popcorn to see what happens in Q3/Q4. The trade war will probably make Tesla a noncompetitive product in China. So US sales are going to get MORE important, not less.
People are actively selling their Teslas. Sure, it's on the used market, what does that matter? I don't have stats, but how many sales of new Teslas will a robust used market (which also has Hertz dumping cars onto the market) cannibalize? I'd say each used Tesla is half of a new one.
Point is, I don't see Tesla as a stock that can rationalize bad sales. They don't have a brand-spanking new car for a new mass market: the Cybertruck is explicitly a miss from the pickup truck market. The Semi still can't seem to scale production. The robotaxi is, face it, two years away and a fundamental leap in AI from working.
Trump is going to be on television reminding every democrat who helped him vocally, publicly, monetarily, possibly illegally get him in office, and will join an agency that will target progressive government systematically and with high visibility.
All it takes is, what, 1/3 of the 50% democrats of their potential customer base to say "hell no" and that's ... 16% drop in sales. Ever seen a company lose 16% of sales?
> Tesla's Model Y is still the best selling car model in the world in 2024
Do you have a source for that? Tesla is not even in the top 10 largest auto manufacturers, but the larger ones have way more models so I suppose it is possible Model Y is the best selling car (though it certainly isnt in the US).
The geography matters, but just speaking for the US, rational buyers who want an EV will learn their lesson and come to Tesla. Maybe after one last ICE mistake but eventually.
Superchargers are not just a bullet point, having them or not is a dividing line between "it just works" and "life is miserable" for EV owners. And only a small subset of them are open to non-Teslas for who knows how long.
That is simply not true. You are speaking about the past. In the present and the future, especially as superchargers open up to other brands and more NEVI chargers get built in the second half of this decade, I see absolutely no reason people would “come to Tesla.”
I would put money on the opposite, and on people moving to other brands.
Superchargers opening up will not be overnight. It will take years.
Prices will be higher for non Teslas and will require inconvenient steps and even membership plans to get a slight price break. And there will be fewer features. When the chargers are even ready. A few are, but don’t be fooled to think that means bad times are in the past for non-Tesla EVs.
As to other chargers being built, sure, but scale and ubiquity is what matters. Not having one fast charger at the odd Four Seasons resort. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Tesla is not importing to china. Its not debt ridden like the 10 other car companies, and has a growth outlook far beyond them via FSD and renewables. They produce 1.5M cars a year, Hertz is a blip. FSD13 is looking fantastic.
What competitive advantage does Tesla have in renewables?
They produced 1.5 million. Their sales are down, they have no new models releasing, they have competition on all fronts, they likely will lose the Chinese market in the trade war. They need to sell 20 million vehicles to justify their stock.
If Tesla has a kuckass sub 10000$ sodium ion city car (aka the car for 1-3 billion people)... But they have luxury vehicles and that's it.
Fully auto drive is a convergent evolution of infrastructure problem. It is ten years away. Army of Indians won't cut it.
The Internet says 50% of US buyers are identified democrats, YMMV for internet stats. That number doesn't seem stupid -- EVs are progressive, environmentalist, anti-establishment.
Tesla's stock is a huge bubble. It's worth the next 10 car companies combined! Yes there's a ton of AI speculation in there, but fundamentally the company's stock is about geometric growth in sales.
The most important customer to a car company is their current ones, since those have a very high chance of being loyal to the brand when they buy again.
Tesla is a company that does almost no advertising. Maybe that's because the press gives them enough hype, but I suspect there is a huge degree of passionate advocacy. I should know, I ... was ... a strong advocate for Tesla. I still am for EVs, but they were one and the same with Tesla for 20 years.
A subtle thing happened with the Tesla owners I know. They went from advocating for their car, to rationalizing it, within the span of six months. I don't think it is a stretch to say that Tesla owners were passionate advocates for their vehicles. All progressive, environmentalist people I know are now hell-nos.
Point is, Tesla is stock bubble. Their sales are already down this year, and I'm picking up the popcorn to see what happens in Q3/Q4. The trade war will probably make Tesla a noncompetitive product in China. So US sales are going to get MORE important, not less.
People are actively selling their Teslas. Sure, it's on the used market, what does that matter? I don't have stats, but how many sales of new Teslas will a robust used market (which also has Hertz dumping cars onto the market) cannibalize? I'd say each used Tesla is half of a new one.
Point is, I don't see Tesla as a stock that can rationalize bad sales. They don't have a brand-spanking new car for a new mass market: the Cybertruck is explicitly a miss from the pickup truck market. The Semi still can't seem to scale production. The robotaxi is, face it, two years away and a fundamental leap in AI from working.
Trump is going to be on television reminding every democrat who helped him vocally, publicly, monetarily, possibly illegally get him in office, and will join an agency that will target progressive government systematically and with high visibility.
All it takes is, what, 1/3 of the 50% democrats of their potential customer base to say "hell no" and that's ... 16% drop in sales. Ever seen a company lose 16% of sales?
Good luck with that stock, folks.