I get the point, but I think the most self-consistent answer is that your conscious experience has a 100% chance of staying in the original body. (And similarly for destroy-and-remake teleporters.)
Indeed, the coin toss explanation "Catharine" uses on the Simon copies is merely a manipulation to ensure he continues following her instructions so that the ARK is launched, obscured to the player by the necessary mechanic of always controlling the surviving Simon copy. The only "real" Simon died in Toronto.
