All this handwringing about inflation, economy etc. I think it is lot simpler:
Most people are already set on who they will vote for. Perhaps Trump supporters more so than Democrats. So, it all boils down to turnout:
1. Kamala wasn't the candidate to bring out Democrats (no primary, not a popular choice even among Democrats, selected by the DNC)
2. Trump can bring out his voters. The added advantage was a female opponent. A number of his supporter (male and female) have a pretty strong misogynistic streak. They will turn out to vote against a female opponent just because of that. I suspect a male Democratic candidate (even Biden) would have done much better (entirely driven by lower turnout of Trump supporters as they would not have been so committed against a male opponent)
This is further supported by the results of 2018 /2022 mid-terms. Trump was not on the ballot. So, Republican turnout (especially the kind that is in the cult) was impacted and Democrats had a good showing. We will see the same in 2026 (even more so as the economy will tank over the next 2 years and Democrats will come out in force). I predict a clean sweep by Democrats in 2026 perhaps even 60 Senate seats (yes, the economy will be that bad) and then the impeachment will start.
Most people are already set on who they will vote for. Perhaps Trump supporters more so than Democrats. So, it all boils down to turnout:
1. Kamala wasn't the candidate to bring out Democrats (no primary, not a popular choice even among Democrats, selected by the DNC)
2. Trump can bring out his voters. The added advantage was a female opponent. A number of his supporter (male and female) have a pretty strong misogynistic streak. They will turn out to vote against a female opponent just because of that. I suspect a male Democratic candidate (even Biden) would have done much better (entirely driven by lower turnout of Trump supporters as they would not have been so committed against a male opponent)
This is further supported by the results of 2018 /2022 mid-terms. Trump was not on the ballot. So, Republican turnout (especially the kind that is in the cult) was impacted and Democrats had a good showing. We will see the same in 2026 (even more so as the economy will tank over the next 2 years and Democrats will come out in force). I predict a clean sweep by Democrats in 2026 perhaps even 60 Senate seats (yes, the economy will be that bad) and then the impeachment will start.