I like the long-term thinking, but what about other trends? Texas was quietly (it seems to me) getting less red up until this election. America is getting more diverse and more educated, and Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. So shouldn't the Trump / Republican base start shrinking? Maybe e.g. Texas +4 isn't necessarily horrendous for Democrats.
> younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism.
Young people (18-29) are the age demographic where Trump made his biggest gain from 2020 to 2024. The only demographic where Harris had gains as the oldest demographic.
So while democrats still won the young vote, the trend is in the opposite direction.
Fair point about the trend, yes. And thanks for pointing out that Harris actually made gains with Boomers; I've verified that and updated my mental model.
You appear to be correct; thanks for pointing it out. I'm now seeing[1] a 10 point lead for Trump among ages 45-64, and a tie among ages 65+. My mental model was still based on the 2016 and 2020 numbers.
> Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism.
Is this really the case? My understanding, based on voting data, is that Gen Z was overwhelming for Trump and Trumpism. If anything, Baby Boomers have gone way more left than they have been in previous elections.
I've seen no data showing Gen Z support for Trump, and I'm interested if you have some. I'm seeing[1] an 11 point lead for Harris among the age 18-29 group. That's much more narrow, of course, than the margins in 2016 and 2020, so I guess Gen Z is more supportive of Trump than Millenials were at the same age.
>Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism.
No they aren't. Gen Z young men are all voting for Trump.
>America is getting more diverse and more educated
Diverse maybe, educated no. They're getting more college degrees than 50+ years ago I suppose, but they're not worth much compared to college degrees in the past. These days, college just makes up for utterly lousy secondary school education. Educational standards in the US have been in decline for a very long time.
From the exit poll data, I see a 2 point lead for Trump among men age 18-29. That's interesting, but probably also within the margin of error. (For women in that range it's an overwhelming 24 point lead for Harris, making the overall support for Harris in that group pretty strong, albeit not as strong as I thought and much weaker than in 2020 and 2016.)
> ...more college degrees...
Yes, and regardless of your opinion of them, this has been inversely correlated with support for Trump. This has not changed from 2016, to 2020, to 2024.
I think if you looked separately at white GenZ men, you'd see a much higher lead for Trump. White people are a shrinking portion of the overall population.
And yes, there's a huge gap between the sexes in political leaning, and according to articles I've read, has a lot to do with young men being sexless and angry (not that this is the women's fault). Basically, GenZ men are turning into a bunch of angry incels.
And yes, college degree attainment is inversely correlated with Trump support, in general. I never said otherwise; I was just making a side point about the country being "more educated". Sure, more people these days have college degrees than 50+ years ago, but on the other hand, 50+ years ago the US didn't elect anyone as vulgar as Trump into its highest office so it doesn't seem to have helped that much.
They're the ones calling themselves that (they invented the term, after all), so you can blame them for dehumanizing themselves, somehow. Meanwhile, they're all blaming young women for not wanting to be handmaids for them, and your attitude isn't somehow going to magically make women want to go back to the 1800s, so have fun being angry and single I guess.
Only a miniscule amount of men would consider themselves incels. The vast majority just gets insulted as being one for disagreeing with people like you. But go on keep foaming at the mouth we all see how that turns out :)
How it turns out isn't going to be great for the incels: they brought this on themselves, and now they get to suffer with it. I don't live in the US, so it's not going to be bad for me, other than having to watch its society implode from across the ocean. If you really think Trump is going to make things better, you're sorely deluded.
You seem to have trouble understanding the bigger picture, or you're really stupid enough to think that Trump is going to make things better for these people. Let me fix this for you:
"you are an incel because of your actions" > they are and get offended and vote trump > Trump wins > things for them go from bad to much worse
So when things get even worse for them under Trump, they have no one to blame but themselves, and certainly not random people on the internet that they feel offended by.
Just look at the headline. But the numbers just saying "18-24 are slighyly more conservative than 24-30". While the lion's share simply say they are moderate.
Only up to 2020, but for the US you see that liberalism for men only stagnated in 2020, not shift conservative.
South Korea... I have no clue what has happened.
> These days, college just makes up for utterly lousy secondary school education.
A bit questionable (I reckon lousy grade school just means less college, and college participation rates are decreasing), but I do agree that secondary education has utterly tarnished its standards. NCLB can't even explain this horrible drop.
