Well, by definition, thinking is always explicit reasoning, no?
And I'd hazard a guess that a well-thought through Fermi Estimation beats lizard-brain eyeballing every time, it's just that in the inbetween space the two interfere unfavourably.
My guess would be no. I have terrible face recognition ability and I can look into face for hour and still other people could easily beat me in less than a second.(I am assuming "well-thought through Fermi Estimation" would be similar for me and others in this case).
> Well, by definition, thinking is always explicit reasoning, no?
That doesn't feel right to me. (Heh, accidentally appropriate word choice.) There are a lot of tasks we do that are arguably "thinking" yet don't involve an internal "Oh, hey, I'm gonna solve this problem, I'm thinking right now."
For example, imagine you're at a park, and someone is feeding the ducks. Another person walks up behind them and sucker-punches them into the pond.
It should be almost a reflex [0] that you'll conclude "the puncher is bad" and "the person in the water needs help" without explicitly reasoning out. I think that task qualifies as "thinking", especially since it involves some kind of theory-of-mind about those other humans.
[0] An exception might be someone with a sociopathic disability, who would have to think more-explicitly to realize what reaction is expected of them.
And I'd hazard a guess that a well-thought through Fermi Estimation beats lizard-brain eyeballing every time, it's just that in the inbetween space the two interfere unfavourably.