Ditto. Even if the probability is 1/100, assuming they have at least $1bn net wo... | Hacker News

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		nomilk 10 months ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: HBO Documentary Suggests Bitcoin Creator Satoshi N... Ditto. Even if the probability is 1/100, assuming they have at least $1bn net worth, that's a $10m expected payoff.

Dylan16807 10 months ago [–]

Expected value doesn't really work for rare events. A 1% chance of $50M and a 1% chance of $2B are barely different to a person.

im3w1l 10 months ago | [–]

For a person it doesn't matter. But the context here is gangs, and for organizations it could make a difference. $2B can be split many-ways and still have significant money for everyone.

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