This is coincides with my headcannon cause of the business cycle.
1. Firms compete
2. Firms either increase their efficiency or die
3. Efficient firms are more susceptible to shocks
4. Firm shutdown and closures are themselves shocks
5. Eventually the system reaches a critical point where the aggregate susceptibility is higher than the aggregate of shocks that will be generated by shutdowns and closures
6. Any external shock will cause a cascade
There's essentially a "commons" where firms trade susceptibility for efficiency. Or in other words, susceptibility is pooled while the rewards for efficiency are separate.
It has inevitability, but you're right, not predictable periodicity. Is predictable periodicity a necessary part of a cycle? I feel like the rise and fall of nations is a cycle, but not necessarily one of predictable periodicity.
1. Firms compete
2. Firms either increase their efficiency or die
3. Efficient firms are more susceptible to shocks
4. Firm shutdown and closures are themselves shocks
5. Eventually the system reaches a critical point where the aggregate susceptibility is higher than the aggregate of shocks that will be generated by shutdowns and closures
6. Any external shock will cause a cascade
There's essentially a "commons" where firms trade susceptibility for efficiency. Or in other words, susceptibility is pooled while the rewards for efficiency are separate.