I'm really on a kick these days applying Maya Angelou's quote to people in our industry: "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time."

People who say arrogant things, even in a light-hearted joking tone, often truly are arrogant. Whatever people show you early in an interview process is often true. If they show you good things, believe it. If they show you bad things, believe it. If they either get off-track or hyper-focus on the wrong things... believe it.