Draw a ship. Draw some waves. Note the angle from Crayon Eater those waves.

Also note how wide an angle "ship hull" represents both vertically and horizontally.

Not so 1 in a million.

Sure, if it bounces that's a very big angle.

But what's the chance of a bullet that hits water bouncing back the other way at high speed? I would have thought it was zero!

Would love to see someone fire a Phalanx for four hours just to generate enough test data to assess that probability