This is too reductionist. There's a lot of reasons why someone could turn down that bet, other than "he's just blathering". Maybe he's very confidently down on OpenAI but 10k is a lot of money for him, and is being offered a bet by someone who's a noise generator but who's very well off, for whom 10k means nothing. If you think these people don't exist, you should visit WSB.

I evaluate arguments on their own merit, not based on extraneous data like appeal to authority or what bets the author makes.