Well, it's not as bad as Q1. But way down from last year.
It's amusing to see what Tesla puts in a filing in which material mis-statements are felonies.
It's quite different from what Musk says when he can get away with it.
The phrase "full self driving" is never written out. They do use "FSD (Supervised)" twice, both with the footnote in tiny type "Active driver supervision required; does not make the vehicle autonomous." The closest thing to a mention of real autonomous driving is "Looking ahead to future
autonomous driving and robotaxi service, we continued progress on software and hardware
development." Remember that Tesla announced the reveal of their robo-taxi for August 8, 2024, but that's been cancelled.[1]
On the battery front, Tesla is having a bad year.[2] Tesla is trying to make their own cells, rather than buying them from Panasonic or CATL. It's not working well at all. Also, note the total absence of any mention of solid-state batteries. That's clearly the coming technology, and Tesla is nowhere in that space. (Yes, solid state batteries are real. On sale at Home Depot now.[3])
This is a big car company having a so-so year. Ford and GM have years like this. Ford's P/E ratio is around 15. GM's is around 6. Tesla's is around 68. Nothing in this report justifies that.
> This is a big car company having a so-so year. Ford and GM have years like this. Ford's P/E ratio is around 15. GM's is around 6. Tesla's is around 68. Nothing in this report justifies that.
Telsa is not a car company, any anyone that thinks that way is completely missing the point
Tesla currently makes most of it's revenue from cars, but that is not going to remain true for long.
Energy storage, Optimus and self-driving cars are predicted to generate much, much more.
Of course, I'm not saying it's a certainty, but it's clearly the goal. Elon bets everything on his visions, so it's either going to come true or Tesla will fail. Either way, Tesla won't be a "car company" much longer.
If Tesla is really betting its future on those other projects, like Optimus or Dojo, could you explain why they are not mentionning them almost at all in regulatory fillings ?
They are only mentionned is some very broad way, without any specifics - mostly on Twitter, through Musk or other non legally binding communications.
I will give you a hint. The chances of going to prison for lying to investors are very low. The chances of going to prison for lying in regulatory fillings are very different.
> could you explain why they are not mentionning them almost at all in regulatory fillings ?
I don't understand the legalities around regulatory filings, or why a company would be required to file details about their future plans and goals. If they're planning to make a ton of money from some future product, what regulatory filings are they required to make about that?
In the last two investor calls Elon has said repeatedly he expects Optimus and self-driving to value tesla at well over $5B.
Again, I'm not saying for one second I think it will come true, just that Elon is being extremely clear that is the plan. I firmly believe it will either come true or Tesla will fail.
> I don't understand the legalities around regulatory filings, or why a company would be required to file details about their future plans and goals.
Seriously ? Tesla is a publicly traded company. It's mandatory to disclose all the financials, what business it's in etc, to give investors an accurate view of what future revenues and profits could be.
And Tesla is doing that - and in those papers they are pretty much saying, we are 100% a car making company.
Here you have the latest Annual Report and proxy statements:
Is Apple filing details about Vision Pro version 4, or the VR display built into the heads up display of every car?
Of course not.
Apple are clearly planning many, many years of product strategy including things that may or may not come true and that may or may not make billions of dollars. Some companies play their cards close to their chest and keep everything a secret from everyone (Apple) and some don't (Tesla).
Neither strategy requires them to file with the government about their future plans.
> in those papers they are pretty much saying, we are 100% a car making company.
Yeah, right now that is what they're making money from, and that is what they are filing. In the future they plan to make gobs more money from other things which they are currently working towards. How much money and effort do you think Apple are currently putting into products that could generate as much profit as the iPhone? Are they filing about those?
Well, there's a third option: Optimus joins self driving to be the stock pump du jour, but Tesla attempts to methodically builds its core businesses, EVs and energy storage, to grow into its current valuation.
Just like you, I'm not saying this will happen. But I do think it most closely matches the Tesla playbook of the previous decade.
Energy storage is going to be huge, but probably low-margin. Anyone who can buy batteries can be in that business, as with solar. The biggest grid-scale battery operation in the US, Manatee in Florida, uses battery modules from Samsung. Not Tesla.
Selling equipment to utilities is profitable, but not hugely so.
Energy storage also strikes me as a scenario where it is trivial to shop for the best deal. There is no halo around a product for industrial users who are just looking for technical specs given price. Worst for battery manufacturers, I assume it is straightforward to mix and match brands/technologies as the grids expand over time.
It's amusing to see what Tesla puts in a filing in which material mis-statements are felonies. It's quite different from what Musk says when he can get away with it.
The phrase "full self driving" is never written out. They do use "FSD (Supervised)" twice, both with the footnote in tiny type "Active driver supervision required; does not make the vehicle autonomous." The closest thing to a mention of real autonomous driving is "Looking ahead to future autonomous driving and robotaxi service, we continued progress on software and hardware development." Remember that Tesla announced the reveal of their robo-taxi for August 8, 2024, but that's been cancelled.[1]
On the battery front, Tesla is having a bad year.[2] Tesla is trying to make their own cells, rather than buying them from Panasonic or CATL. It's not working well at all. Also, note the total absence of any mention of solid-state batteries. That's clearly the coming technology, and Tesla is nowhere in that space. (Yes, solid state batteries are real. On sale at Home Depot now.[3])
This is a big car company having a so-so year. Ford and GM have years like this. Ford's P/E ratio is around 15. GM's is around 6. Tesla's is around 68. Nothing in this report justifies that.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/tesla-pla...
[2] https://electrek.co/2024/07/17/elon-musk-might-give-up-tesla...
[3] https://www.homedepot.com/p/YOSHINO-Solid-State-Portable-Pow...