I am the founder of an industrial edtech company, with some prior experience in the K12 space.
Your analysis of the market structure and the challenges is consistent with my experience - I'd like to add 2 points though:
1. Building on what you've said about VC-level returns, while edtech (and industrial edtech) may not necessarily be fields where VC funded unicorns can actually form and then survive to profitability, I believe there is sufficient need and space for companies that are investable and can grow into profits / valuations in the 10s /100s of millions - they can follow the startup format, etc.; just not VC investable, as you've noted.
2. In the space of skill development (i.e., adults / professional learning), I would like to add that for many skills, as industries get more sophisticated (I am taking of manufacturing, automotive, energy, oil & gas, infrastructure, petrochemicals, infrastructure), there is value for the company in upskilling their staff - simply because that does directly convert to profitability if done well; and at least puts a floor on issues that poor or absent training may cause - like safety, quality, etc. So even if it is a cost, it is a cost that can directly affect their topline / bottomline, and I believe there is an opportunity here.
I think bootstrapped with a small team of under 10 people, Karpathy can get to revenue of $20M just from the developer market. That's a pretty great outcome if VCs aren't involved.
Your analysis of the market structure and the challenges is consistent with my experience - I'd like to add 2 points though:
1. Building on what you've said about VC-level returns, while edtech (and industrial edtech) may not necessarily be fields where VC funded unicorns can actually form and then survive to profitability, I believe there is sufficient need and space for companies that are investable and can grow into profits / valuations in the 10s /100s of millions - they can follow the startup format, etc.; just not VC investable, as you've noted.
2. In the space of skill development (i.e., adults / professional learning), I would like to add that for many skills, as industries get more sophisticated (I am taking of manufacturing, automotive, energy, oil & gas, infrastructure, petrochemicals, infrastructure), there is value for the company in upskilling their staff - simply because that does directly convert to profitability if done well; and at least puts a floor on issues that poor or absent training may cause - like safety, quality, etc. So even if it is a cost, it is a cost that can directly affect their topline / bottomline, and I believe there is an opportunity here.
/off soapbox