If in a dry climate, a derailleur transmission can last a long time and will be cheap to maintain. But once a person starts replacing quality components with like quality, especially in a wet climate, a derailleur transmission can be expensive over 10 years.
The set of my experience is { Shimano: [ $various_derailleurs, Nexus 3, Nexus 7, Alfine 11 ] , Rohloff: [14 speed], Other: [rear-hub e-bike] }
$various_derailleurs -- fussy to maintain, cheap to replace but costly over 10 years
Nexus 3 -- rubbish
Nexus 7 -- not bad for modest bicycling
Alfine 11 -- zero maintenance, excellent performance, cheaper over 10 years than $various_derailleurs
Rohloff -- low maintenance, expensive, built to last, and 14 speeds! But heavy and 10% efficiency loss.
e-bike -- reliable, fast and fun, but zero exercise and in the range of a Rohloff for cost
In short, I think an e-bike in 2024 is brilliant for single-mode commuting. The technology is reliable and performant... but heavy.
An Alfine 11 or Rohloff is bliss for multi-modal commuting (assuming 16" or 20" wheels).
From your comparison it may seem that Rohloff is worse than Alfine 11. But it is actually lighter and more efficient. Plus it has wider gear range and equal range jumps between each gear
> e-bike -- reliable, fast and fun, but zero exercise
I disagree on the last point, I can turn the motor up or down, or all the way off, based on how much of a workout I want to get.
Also the only reason I'm willing to bike around my hilly city (Seattle) is because I have an ebike.
To put it another way, across 3 or 4 blocks I have around a 100 meter incline on the way to a park.
Can experienced bicyclists who are in good shape pull that off? With a kid on the back of their bike? Sure. But an ebike lets me turn turn the motor on for that part, and turn it off when I'm not doing something as difficult.
Poor durability. In addition, the gear range is suitable only for short, low-effort rides. I used one for city commuting until it simply failed mechanically. In sum, the Nexus 3 is not in any way better for ownership than a working derailleur transmission. For a rental, there may be some value proposition.
The Nexus 7 proved reliable; the Alfine 11 a good value for durability and range of speeds; the Rohloff is brilliant but yes, those 14 speeds are expensive.
The choice depends on the rider's needs. I'd rather ride an IGH bicycle for the reliability and value over 10 years of riding. I'm not sure that an indifferent/infrequent bicycle user (the sort who lets things rust and never checks tire pressure) would care.
For the purpose of long commutes it's possible to buy an entire e-bike in 2024 for less than the price of a Rohloff hub alone.
The Alfine 11 and the Rohloff are brilliant. The Rohloff is a joy to use on all types of terrain. Instant shifts without fuss.
They are always sold with wrong sprockets. The high gear is never usable. Number 2 gear is connected directly, and so it should be the default on no-wind flat road. Then it lasts forever on flat country like holland.
I have 420 mm folding bike with Nexus-3. The correct ratio is less than 2:1, which meant changing both sprockets to smallest and largest available. I do not even know what to do with 622 mm wheels.
The set of my experience is { Shimano: [ $various_derailleurs, Nexus 3, Nexus 7, Alfine 11 ] , Rohloff: [14 speed], Other: [rear-hub e-bike] }
$various_derailleurs -- fussy to maintain, cheap to replace but costly over 10 years
Nexus 3 -- rubbish
Nexus 7 -- not bad for modest bicycling
Alfine 11 -- zero maintenance, excellent performance, cheaper over 10 years than $various_derailleurs
Rohloff -- low maintenance, expensive, built to last, and 14 speeds! But heavy and 10% efficiency loss.
e-bike -- reliable, fast and fun, but zero exercise and in the range of a Rohloff for cost
In short, I think an e-bike in 2024 is brilliant for single-mode commuting. The technology is reliable and performant... but heavy.
An Alfine 11 or Rohloff is bliss for multi-modal commuting (assuming 16" or 20" wheels).