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What will happen if everyone starts using heavy statistical methods or LLMs to predict stocks prices? And buys stock based on them? Will it absolutely make everything unpredictable?

Edit: assuming that they initially provide good predictions



This has already been a thing since the late 80s.


It hasn't been accurate enough to be meaningful, nor enough data.


There has been plenty of work behind the scenes over the decades that has been meaningful.


HFT guys won't touch GPT. The stakes are too high. If LLMs could give those guys an edge they'd be all over this tech.


Or rather: If LLMs could give those guys an edge, there's no way they'd share their edge-giving LLMs with anyone, least of all their competition and the plebs.


A number of quant firms are among the largest global consumers of commercial LLMs

The only area you absolutely can’t use LLMs is in sub ms latency


So where is matters the most.


Isn't it already unpredictable? That is why nobody outperforms indices. And utterly irrational, which is again both expected and seen. This must be why Tesla continues to have a huge market value - Elon knows how to excite the LLMs. :)




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