I think this points to the real problem: it is hard to evaluate how "good" someone is during the hiring process

Lots of great coders don't have a big open presence. Years of experience isn't a good sign with the churn in tech, plus you don't know if they wrote code or just watched. Is being able to do a l33t coding exercise in a fixed time a sign? IMHO I'm decent programmer and I've failed them. Can you come up with an exercise that matches the work that will be done and can be completed in a reasonable amount of time?

And the phrase "matches the work that will be done" is doing some heavy lifting: many companies don't really know what they need. I've seen companies that need 99% soft skills that want a ton of niche tech experience. Or advertise for something other than the real dumpster-fire that you'll have to work on.

This is the fundamental reason that knowing someone works: they know your coding skills and they can give you the inside scoop on the position.

That isn't quite the same. In the job market, leaving the market isn't really an option for the seller (employee), unless you are independently wealthy. So you generally have to settle for a price that is lower than your worth.

There is also insufficient information going the other way. Unlike buying a car, there is more to the buyer's side than just money. There is the work environment, how well employees are treated, the probability of future raises, probability the company will lay you off or cut pay or force you to relocate in the future, etc. And that assymetry impacts the market as well. For example a company might be a really great place to work, and that would compensate for a lower salary, but the prospective employee doesn't know that.

The best way to get a job _has always been, and will always be_, knowing somebody.

Networking is an essential life-skill, and worth all the discomfort it takes to get better at it. (You don't have to be the top 1% of networkers to be successful).

I have interviewed dozens of people for fairly specialized roles and the number of people with an impressive looking resume that end up being pretenders is probably greater than 90%. I would much rather interview and hire someone that another trusted party can vouch for. I understand that everyone wants to grow in their career, stretch themself, market themself well, etc. but there is a lot of blatant lying and cheating going on in the labor market nowadays.

As a job seeker, this is something that worries me all the time. I think I am a pretty honest person and do not embellish my work. Yet, my resume is going to be sitting amidst heaps of liars who will say whatever is required. How often am I going to be passed over at the initial filtering because of my more modest listed credentials?

The modern application process is a spammer's dream. It works like Google search: optimize based on keywords to drive your resume 'page' to the top. People mastered the SEO game a long time ago, so it should be no surprise that recruiters are getting clickbait resumes.

Im curious if this is true.

Yes and no.

My sources are telling me they get a few hundred applications per day for just one role. Beating those odds will be a lot easier if you know the hiring manager.

Only works if your issue is getting through to the hiring manager and getting approved.

Ultimately, what I’m seeing is that companies are just more picky when it comes to interviewing too. Everyone is asking harder or less common leetcode questions than before and are evaluating more strongly than before.

It’s significantly harder to get an offer these days even if you get an interview.

I mean how bad is it out there if you have 5 to 10 years of experience the degree and a few certs like rhcsa and AWS professional?

Go to Leetcode, look up a bunch of LC hards, and you'll start to get an idea. Even with practicing those well and doing well overall, I am finding employers are looking for something exceptional. You can pass all of those questions optimally but if you don't add something "extra" on top - it seems like they're really ready to move onto other candidates.

This isn't even for top compensation either. I'm finding that the offers overall are meager as well.

I mean that essentially means that if you don't know the hiring manager then your chances of getting the job are one in hundreds if not thousands.

which essentially means you have to know the hiring manager to get the job.

It's significantly easier to find a job if you know hiring managers. It's not a gimme, but it will put you ahead of hundreds of applicants.