Keep in mind, this is only a 30 minute leading forecast. And day-night status has a strong effect on the ionosphere, to the extent that radio stations have different regulated broadcast power day versus night, and amateur radio folks bounce radio off it at night.

Italy is not shown in the forecast zone but pics are surfacing from northern parts of it. Does that mean there is hope for southern US?

I dunno how far south you mean, but we see it in SW Virginia (which is outside the forecast zones that I’ve seen).

Thanks! I have a small chance of seeing something lol