> For example, you have some information, but it’s worthless because you’re reading into it the wrong way. Or the information is material, but the market doesn’t believe it. Or macro conditions negate the information. ... Or the classic “you’re right, but it’s the wrong time”, like many companies were in the dot-com era.
These are all part of knowing what's going to happen. If you think you know something but you're wrong, you're wrong, and the person who does know (or makes a better guess) is the person who takes your money.
> Or you’re too risk averse to act on the information.
At which point you might as well tell other people or publish it and then someone else can.
> Or you don’t have the ability to transact on the information.
This is extremely unusual for publicly traded stocks. Random individuals off the street can open a brokerage account if they think they know something the market doesn't. Even people with no money could sell the information to someone else for whatever they could get, or just tell their friends to have someone richer than them owe them a favor, and then that person trades on it.
Probably the most common case you can't use it is when it would be insider trading. But why would acting on some LLM output be insider trading?
These are all part of knowing what's going to happen. If you think you know something but you're wrong, you're wrong, and the person who does know (or makes a better guess) is the person who takes your money.
> Or you’re too risk averse to act on the information.
At which point you might as well tell other people or publish it and then someone else can.
> Or you don’t have the ability to transact on the information.
This is extremely unusual for publicly traded stocks. Random individuals off the street can open a brokerage account if they think they know something the market doesn't. Even people with no money could sell the information to someone else for whatever they could get, or just tell their friends to have someone richer than them owe them a favor, and then that person trades on it.
Probably the most common case you can't use it is when it would be insider trading. But why would acting on some LLM output be insider trading?