> In 1980, Reagan famously announced his support for "states' rights" and excoriated "welfare queens," both of which of course were dog whistles to Southern segregationists
I’m going to start with this point first because it’s the problem with the whole line of thinking. Democrats use the notion of “dog whistling” to brand Republican policies racist based on the premise that republicans are racist. But their support for that latter assertion is that republicans support supposedly racist policies. The reasoning is completely circular (and unfalsifiable).
Republicans opposed the creation of the welfare state in the 1930s when pro-segregation democrats introduced welfare programs. They likewise opposed the expansion of federal government at the expense of the states by vicious racists like Woodrow Wilson. So what are we to infer from Republicans’ continued support of the same policies before and after democrats abandoned their support for segregation?
To circle back to your first point, why would LBJ fear losing the south? Why would southern racist democrats switch to the party that had supported the civil rights act even more strongly? That’s like Muslims switching to the GOP because they’re mad at Biden for his support of Israel.
> based on the premise that republicans are racist
They offer plenty of evidence, and so do the Republicans themselves, some of whom openly embrace white nationalism, Christian nationalism, replacement theory, etc. Openly defying convention and saying racist things is commonplace and cliche. Going back further, someone in this thread even quoted the interview about school busing.
> Why would southern racist democrats switch to the party that had supported the civil rights act even more strongly?
Because the GOP — having had their electoral asses whipped for decades, looking for a way back into power, and with the John Birch Society and Liberty Lobby crowd (backed by ultra-rich folks wanting tax cuts) looking for a seat at the party's table — started espousing "conservative" positions and dog-whistling to the racists.
In essence, the GOP said, "OK, southerners, we get it that YOU don't like what we've been offering for years, and WE don't like that we keep losing elections, so we'll start offering what YOU like."
Once again: Life isn't a snapshot or freeze-frame, it's a movie. The Dems used to be the party of racism and the GOP the party of freedom and equal opportunity; over time, the parties switched roles.
I’m going to start with this point first because it’s the problem with the whole line of thinking. Democrats use the notion of “dog whistling” to brand Republican policies racist based on the premise that republicans are racist. But their support for that latter assertion is that republicans support supposedly racist policies. The reasoning is completely circular (and unfalsifiable).
Republicans opposed the creation of the welfare state in the 1930s when pro-segregation democrats introduced welfare programs. They likewise opposed the expansion of federal government at the expense of the states by vicious racists like Woodrow Wilson. So what are we to infer from Republicans’ continued support of the same policies before and after democrats abandoned their support for segregation?
To circle back to your first point, why would LBJ fear losing the south? Why would southern racist democrats switch to the party that had supported the civil rights act even more strongly? That’s like Muslims switching to the GOP because they’re mad at Biden for his support of Israel.