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I'm thinking there's considerable difference between:

- Predict that a gigacorp, which has been lucratively monetizing user information at gigascale for many years, would prove to be darn good at protecting its sources of user information. In a world where dark patterns, incomprehensible T&C's, "just say yes" user behavior, corporate misdeeds, etc. have been well-known things for many, many years.

and

- Predict the future of the planet's climate years ahead, when state-of-the-art weather forecasting can't yet manage 2 weeks.

(Admitting that I can see a good climate researcher using "surprised" very frequently - both for public consumption, and to summarize "our very-advanced-but-usually-wrong model was wrong yet again".)



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