Well then you should circle that date 6-mo after IPO (or the end of any non-IPO blackout period) as days with mass sell-offs regardless of the stock price

You act like that isn’t cooked into the optimizations of the market. It is, or everyone could follow your get-rich-quick scheme. Go ahead, try us a few time, see how it goes.

But is that actually baked in to the price? (I’m legitimately asking, not being argumentative)

Back when I worked at a big public company where we had options and employee blackout dates, there would almost always be a dip in the stock price when the blackout was lifted

The "baked into the price" also includes the price of options. I would not be surprised to find that the price premium of options dated around the 6 month window would negate the gain from the drop.