Am I correct in understanding that you have the spot price of Hopper card compute as your underlying and then come up with a pricing equation for some derivative instruments for that?
If what you have is FX-like I wouldn't be able to help beyond that anyway, FX modelling is its own thing and I haven't done anything there since the obligatory uni courses(in equity space myself). AFAIK the general way to do things in rates/FX is SABR for vanilla and then PDE/MonteCarlo for exotics, but I was never on an FX desk so don't want to point you in the wrong direction.
As I’m sure you can tell, pricing exotic derivatives isn’t my day job.
But your reminder to think of SABR/implied-vol is useful: I think there’s a convexity argument that can be made around how fat the tails would need to be.
I’m not sure anyone is going to be thrilled at “anywhere between one hundred dollars and one hundred million dollars”, but my job is to figure out the bounds.
