>This makes nuclear weapons a poor analogy for AI, because all you need to develop an LLM is a big pile of commodity GPUs, the publicly available training data, some decent software engineers, and time.
Except the GPUs are on export control, and keeping up with the arms race requires a bunch of data you don't have access to (NVidia's IP) - or direct access to the source.
Just like building a nuclear weapon requires access to either already refined fissile material. Or the IP and skills to build your own refining facilities (IP most countries don't have). Literally everyone has access to Uranium - being able to do something useful with it is another story.
After the export ban, China demonstrating a process node advancement that shocked the world. So the GPU story doesn't support your position particularly well.
Every wealthy nation & individual on Earth has abundant access to AI's "ingredients" -- compute, data, and algorithms from the '80s. The resource controls aren't really comparable to nuclear weapons. Moreover, banning nukes won't also potentially delay cures for disease, unlock fusion, throw material science innovation into overdrive, and other incredible developments. That's because you're comparing a general tool to one exclusively proliferated for mass slaughter. It's just...not a remotely appropriate comparison.
>After the export ban, China demonstrating a process node advancement that shocked the world. So the GPU story doesn't support your position particularly well.
I'm not sure why you're conflating process technology with GPUs, but if you want to go there, sure. If anyone was surprised by China announcing they had the understanding of how to do 7nm, they haven't been paying attention. China has been openly and actively poaching TSMC engineers for nearly a decade now.
Announcing you can create a 7nm chip is a VERY, VERY different thing than producing those chips at scale. The most ambitious estimates put it at a 50% yield, and the reality is with China's disinformation engine, it's probably closer to 20%. They will not be catching up in process technology anytime soon.
>Every wealthy nation & individual on Earth has abundant access to AI's "ingredients" -- compute, data, and algorithms from the '80s. The resource controls aren't really comparable to nuclear weapons. Moreover, banning nukes won't also potentially delay cures for disease, unlock fusion, throw material science innovation into overdrive, and other incredible developments. That's because you're comparing a general tool to one exclusively proliferated for mass slaughter. It's just...not a remotely appropriate comparison.
Except they don't? Every nation on earth doesn't have access to the technology to scale compute to the levels needed to make meaningful advances in AI. To say otherwise shows an ignorance of the market. There are a handful of nations capable, at best. Just like there are a handful of nations that have any hope of producing a nuclear weapon.
Except the GPUs are on export control, and keeping up with the arms race requires a bunch of data you don't have access to (NVidia's IP) - or direct access to the source.
Just like building a nuclear weapon requires access to either already refined fissile material. Or the IP and skills to build your own refining facilities (IP most countries don't have). Literally everyone has access to Uranium - being able to do something useful with it is another story.
Kind of like... AI.