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Fake: It's only a matter of time until disinformation leads to calamity (timharford.com)
39 points by rwmj on Feb 25, 2024 | hide | past | favorite | 13 comments


Too late. It's been this way all through human history.

My favourite one has to be when six friends boarded the H.M.S. Dreadnought, and savagely murdered the British Imperial system with a sophmoric prank (1).

1. https://sniggle.net/cole.php


What a read! This guy was really in it for the lulz.

> Cole “once took every seat in the stalls at a pretentious and terrible play and gave tickets to many acquaintances. The performance was wrecked, because as soon as the lights went up, the circles and the gallery saw one short and expressive word spelled out by the bald heads of strategically placed men in the stalls.”


Those who worry about "disinformation" seem to only know one way to deal with it, and that is with more control to the responsible people (them) and less to everyone else.

This has already led to plenty of calamity, and will lead to more.

I remember a theory I first heard about in Jared Diamond's "Guns Germs and Steel", not invented by him and he was clear about it being speculative: The question was why so few animals in Africa can get domesticated. The theory was that since animals there co-evolved with humans, they evolved to be unpredictable (so our big brains wouldn't help us in figuring them out) and capricious (so that we'd regret it if we tried).

Whether that theory is true or not, I'm convinced that the same thing applies to our current political reality: We are met with a flood of attempts to shape us and manipulate us. Insane amounts of money are being spent on it, and our generation's smartest aren't merely working to get us to click on ads. They're working on the other alignment problem - not aligning AI with human preferences, but aligning the population with its leaders preferences.

Society is reacting like zebras, with unpredictable and destructive choices, like electing reality TV stars.

The course Tim Harford obliquely sides with here, is to keep the means of faking things in the hands of a few (since he says that the AI experts who think people will get used to it aren't taking it seriously enough). This will make everything worse.


When did we begin to believe the “news” in the first place?


Human social psychology, aka. "The wisdom of crowds, and the stupidity of herds" (1), in which the average opinion of large groups of people is closer to the truth, than each individual opinion. By informing all individuals of the propaganda you wish to spread, you can influence that average, hijack, and change it to the stupidity of the herd aka. Gleichschaltung (2), which is why these people want to decide what is and what isn't "dangerous" speech. Fuck'em.

1. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FuObIEngySA A shorter explanation: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HNQ3GccCAI0

2. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HNrOvGkxqac

Edit to add a gamification of this for collaborative fact checking https://web.archive.org/web/20220326193202/https://trive.new...


You can pretend you’re immune. But you’re not.


Anyone who's read even a moderate amount of literature from history, old news filings, old political pamphlets and just about any amount of private and state propaganda from any era of history, or anyone who's read accounts of the things so many (possibly most) average people and many educated people believed throughout much of history would know how laughable it is to think that misinformation and disinformation (today's boogeymen) are anything new. Sure, AI lets them be grown to new scale, but even this has a saturation point. Proportionally i'd argue that in any case, the problem was no less, and probably worse in some ways even as near back as the recent past. Why? Because open access to honest and diverse information was much more restricted. It isn't so much today, though you need to sift, as anyone has always had to anyhow.

The modern notion in some circles that we should entrust "filtering" and even regulatory controls against this to governments and their helpers in the major tech companies is downright grotesque given the sources of so much of the most lethal misinformation and the outcomes of similar social control throughout history.


I think the problem is there is an entire class of people with bullshit degrees who think themselves far more intelligent and educated than they are in reality.

It would be interesting to see what the results of a poll would be among college graduates asking "Do you consider yourself above average intelligence?"

In the US I suspect the results would be laughable. At least 75% say yes.


Do you?

Because I'd guess the true figure would be a bit higher than 75%. Have a think about that.


If you can rig the media you don't need to directly rig the election.


I think you are highlighting why "fake" news is dangerous - not because people might believe it but rather because people might no longer believe any news. If that happens then it will be very difficult to shape behavior of the population using media...and this might lead to more "direct" approach.


Or rather, they'll selectively believe news, using a confirmation bias.

What a mess civilization is in...


like the "fine people on both sides" meme hoax https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7qmaBLXL04




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