If the market was looking forward theyd see that nvidia's product offering has minimal moat and no chance to stay differentiated over a timeline long enough for this valuation to make sense.
Nvidia's competitors are starting to release solid hardware. They just need to release all the libraries with their open source CUDA alternative and nvidia's margins go from 75% to a more reasonable 20-30%. Every big tech company is giving nvidia billions of dollars a year, the incentives to get a cuda alternative working are too high for it to not happen.
> They just need to release all the libraries with their open source CUDA alternative
Yeah but they've tried. Year after year for the last decade. They keep failing.
Maybe they're more motivated now? But CUDA isn't a moat because it's unassailable, it's a moat because nobody trying to cross it knows how to operate a shovel
Intel and AMD have tried, but their software divisions are incompetent, and there was much less money in GPUs pre LLMs. Now every big tech in the world is putting resources toward this as theyre sick of the nvidia tax.
In Gold Rush, you either believe it is a fool's errand and ignore it or if you believe in it and dig as fast as possible. It never makes sense to work on improving efficiency of shovel maker.
Google is trying for some time to use its TPU, so is Amazon. It makes so much more sense to pay few billions to Nvidia and don't risk the trillions in valuations.
