Sure, it could be the case that AGI is developed progressively and slowly, the way we're seeing Waymo build autonomous vehicles. But that's just one way amongst many, and you could see it arrive suddenly through very different means, as is possible to imagine with scaled up LLMs.

I really wish people would consider all the possibilities, and assign their relative probability weights to them. Is Karpathy 100% sure it will be like self-driving cars? 50%?