>Obviously if they tried to charge 85% no one would actually be a developer and the App Store would crater. So they have a very strong incentive not to.
That's not really true. If the iPhone became a real monopoly in the US, for instance, with perhaps 98% marketshare (similar to Windows before Macs started seriously challenging them), then Apple really could charge 85%. What is anyone going to do about it? They'd have a choice of paying 85% to Apple so they can sell apps to 98% smartphone users (basically everyone), or not selling smartphone apps altogether and finding a new business strategy that probably doesn't involve making software for consumers at all (which admittedly, many developers would probably choose).
What I can gather is that if Apple, from day one, had an 85% split, grew to 98% marketshare, then that would be ok. If apple started with 30%, then grew to 98% marketshare, then jacked up the price to 85% then they would have a problem.
I think the missing piece that most people miss is that it is not illegal to have a monopoly. It's illegal to use your monopoly to bully others. Apple did no such thing.
Perhaps, but I disagree about your supposition that "they would have a problem". I don't think they would. It may be technically illegal to use your monopoly to bully others, but enforcement in America these days is rare.
That's not really true. If the iPhone became a real monopoly in the US, for instance, with perhaps 98% marketshare (similar to Windows before Macs started seriously challenging them), then Apple really could charge 85%. What is anyone going to do about it? They'd have a choice of paying 85% to Apple so they can sell apps to 98% smartphone users (basically everyone), or not selling smartphone apps altogether and finding a new business strategy that probably doesn't involve making software for consumers at all (which admittedly, many developers would probably choose).