There is an important difference between shares and crypto: US shares exist as a result of US legislation. Hence, it is straightforward to make regulatory or legislative changes for the operation of a share market. This is not true of crypto.
Crypto is more like a currency than a share. It is transnational - if one jurisdiction applies regulatory burden, activity will flow somewhere else without that changing the operation of the market. Hence, it would be far harder for the US to coax changes into the crypto market, and it would require heavy cooperation from other governments.
The US government has leverage against crypto to these limits: (1) some companies that operate as exchanges operate there; (2) some people with US bank accounts want to exchange cash for crypto; (3) the US has some extradition reach against non-US firms who have US customers.
In the last twenty years the US government has extended its legislative reach for banking matters into other developed countries. Their mechanism for doing this: they offer cheap lending (free money) to banks who sign up to their rules. This could change. The London eurodollar trade happened despite the wishes of the US gvt, and such things can happen again. The security environment will be significant in how things change.
In a US-overreach scenario, I would look to India as a place that could emerge as a crypto haven. India is distinct from the Russia/China axis, which lack rule of law - the state can disappear you on a whim. India is comfortably distinct from the US security block, where security agreements can be used as leverage for legislative reach. Several south american countries could run plays also.
This is true. But it would be a mistake to see the legislative options for the US towards crypto to be as straightforward as its options for its own share market. With crypto, there is far more potential for unintended consequences that would push activity off-shore. That would result in reduced control.
Crypto is more like a currency than a share. It is transnational - if one jurisdiction applies regulatory burden, activity will flow somewhere else without that changing the operation of the market. Hence, it would be far harder for the US to coax changes into the crypto market, and it would require heavy cooperation from other governments.
The US government has leverage against crypto to these limits: (1) some companies that operate as exchanges operate there; (2) some people with US bank accounts want to exchange cash for crypto; (3) the US has some extradition reach against non-US firms who have US customers.
In the last twenty years the US government has extended its legislative reach for banking matters into other developed countries. Their mechanism for doing this: they offer cheap lending (free money) to banks who sign up to their rules. This could change. The London eurodollar trade happened despite the wishes of the US gvt, and such things can happen again. The security environment will be significant in how things change.
In a US-overreach scenario, I would look to India as a place that could emerge as a crypto haven. India is distinct from the Russia/China axis, which lack rule of law - the state can disappear you on a whim. India is comfortably distinct from the US security block, where security agreements can be used as leverage for legislative reach. Several south american countries could run plays also.