That's bad news for the IT jobs market. The big tech companies are firing people - those people will have no problem finding another job, but that's a job taken away from more average folks.
Combined with high interest rates, that prevent businesses from starting new projects financed through credit. Also ChatGPT and other AIs increasing developers, artists, etc. productivity - so fewer people can do as much work. Probably demand for IT roles in 2024 is going to be lower than previous years and salaries may stagnate or go down.
Aren't googlers famously burnt out and only know how to use Google products because of dogfooding? I don't mean to demean the people just laid off, surely some of them at least know enough to operate other software suites, but hasn't this been identified as a common problem?
That was when they were the darlings who did nothing but grow and snagging one of their employees was a stretch. Doing big layoffs kind of tarnishes the image.
I wonder if the well-documented nihism of Google, coupled with how all the marvellous internal Google tools seem to work a lot less well without their product teams running them, is secretly an employee retention strategy.
Feels like a stretch to me, I have to say. The only tool that comes to mind is Blaze/Bazel, which I haven't tried outside of Google, but the friction people experience is likely down to the fact that, outside of Google, you have to deal with a world that's more complicated than a single giant monorepo.
Yep, not to mention that many of these engineers were already paid a fortune and are extremely over-hyped as they were basically just tiny cogs in a huge machine and they can't actually build anything on their own... Which is what is required for building software outside of big tech.
I agree. At the end of the day, FAANG engineers are just employees. I never understood the hype or the prestige they get. Also, unrelated but I've read your other comments and they are on point, you're too smart for HN. I say this unironically.
Thanks for the compliment. IMO, the concentration of smart people here is still very high. In most other forums, people don't even understand what I'm saying. Here it's like most people understand my comments but they disagree because they have an interest not to agree and so they require a higher standard of proof.
IT salaries are high mostly because the people who can do the job well can also do other jobs well, so if salaries go down then people change careers. For example, most people who can do IT could also become an electrician, for which the demand is currently high.
> Also ChatGPT and other AIs increasing developers, artists, etc. productivity - so fewer people can do as much work.
This is the sort of thing that increases demand for IT. Company had 40 artists and two IT staff, now they can get by with 10 artists but three IT staff, because IT has more work to do supporting the AI stuff.
> IT salaries are high mostly because the people who can do the job well can also do other jobs well
True to some extent, but IT salaries are high in my opinion because until recently there was a very limited tech talent pool but huge demand for IT talent. I mean IT was only really seen as a good career around 15-20 years ago.
We just got lucky. We had the right skills at the right time. We rode the wave of big tech companies like Google, Amazon and Facebook growing into the most profitable companies in the world. With technology maturing from here on the industry will likely stagnate some and with plenty of freshly well educated IT talent entering the market there's really no reason to not expect this high salaries to continue. In my opinion they'll most likely fall to what your more typical middle class job pays.
Actually, IT was seen as a good career from around 80-87 and from around 95-01. It comes in waves. Then there is a bust, and those who went into IT just because it was seen as a "good career", not because they love coding, are weeded out.
And with only the passionate developers left, the cycle starts again.
Compilers did the same thing. But over time, as more ways to apply code and software got found, demand massively increased beyond what it was previously. This will probably be the same, at least if AI doesn't completely upend every single knowledge job there is.
II'm fairly certain I could learn the theorethical, physical background required to be an electrician pretty quick but that leaves me with precisely zero practical experience of actually pulling cables or building a switchboard without killing myself/others and/or buring down the building.
Besides, im my country a formal education (2-3 years) including an apprenticeship is required by law to practice the trait.
> II'm fairly certain I could learn the theorethical, physical background required to be an electrician pretty quick but that leaves me with precisely zero practical experience of actually pulling cables or building a switchboard without killing myself/others and/or buring down the building.
What do you think the learning is meant for you to learn? You have to terminate aluminum conductors differently than copper to prevent corrosion etc. Learning these things is what allows you to wire a building without causing a fire.
> Besides, im my country a formal education (2-3 years) including an apprenticeship is required by law to practice the trait.
Apprenticeship requirements are unfortunate -- basically giving the incumbents in an industry the ability to rate limit new entrants -- but it's not as if no one has ever done it before. So you do the apprenticeship.
Most people who do IT can become an electrician ? Im curious why you think that. Also Im not too sure about high demands for electricians. This seems to rely on a booming real estate market which is in a whole world of trouble
> Most people who do IT can become an electrician ? Im curious why you think that.
It's fundamentally the same kind of mix between following bureaucratic rules and manipulating man-made technology.
> Also Im not too sure about high demands for electricians. This seems to rely on a booming real estate market which is in a whole world of trouble
Real estate prices are still incredibly high, driven by undersupply of housing, which is unlikely to abate soon. As long as prices are high, construction will be profitable. If prices crash the Fed is likely to lower interest rates which makes construction profitable again, because the prices are lower but so are the construction company's borrowing costs.
There also seems to be some political support for doing something about the high housing costs, like relaxing zoning rules, which would allow new construction in places it's currently prohibited.
> If prices crash the Fed is likely to lower interest rates which makes construction profitable again, because the prices are lower but so are the construction company's borrowing costs.
The Empire is global. If the Fed lowers interest rates, not only can foreign nationals borrow at lower rates directly or indirectly from US banks, because of that the central banks in other countries tend to follow suit.
> At least where I live it takes ~4 - 5 years education to become an electrician.
That's about the same as it is for IT, isn't it? Most decent IT jobs wanting a four-year CS degree.
And changing careers has retraining costs but not for some 18 year old who hasn't picked one yet. Which can balance out the supply and demand five years from now just as well as a 30+ year old changing careers.
> Do you know people who switched from IT to electrician because their salary got lower?
Do you know a lot of people in IT whose salary got lower?
They can do this too, if the difference in salaries becomes large, but it's obviously less expensive for someone who hasn't taken on the training cost for either industry yet so those would be the first to move.
Combined with high interest rates, that prevent businesses from starting new projects financed through credit. Also ChatGPT and other AIs increasing developers, artists, etc. productivity - so fewer people can do as much work. Probably demand for IT roles in 2024 is going to be lower than previous years and salaries may stagnate or go down.