Anyone working in anything remotely tech adjacent is fooling themselves if they thought their career would somehow be static for 30 years. Let's look backwards and think about the drastic paradigm shifts in tech however you want to slice it whether deployment models, monetization models, languages, etc. Server/desktop/web/mobile OR paid-apps/e-commerce/subcription-apps/microtransactions/saas OR C/Java/HTML&CSS/JS/Python/Rust/.. etc. Remember when we were all going to be out of a job when Dotcom imploded, or because of India outsourcing boom?
LLMs give me a similar feeling to some of the car ADAS or Voice Assistant stuff. The first time you interact with the state of the art it is startling and impressive, going to change everything. The rate of change however is not that dramatic on an annual time scale, the rough edges become more obvious and you understand the product is actually quite limited, interest fades.
So, I think a lot of the 1-3 year time frame forecasts are extremely optimistic. However in a 10 year time frame I think we'll have some very interesting viable products. We probably have no idea today what those viable products will look like.
LLMs give me a similar feeling to some of the car ADAS or Voice Assistant stuff. The first time you interact with the state of the art it is startling and impressive, going to change everything. The rate of change however is not that dramatic on an annual time scale, the rough edges become more obvious and you understand the product is actually quite limited, interest fades.
So, I think a lot of the 1-3 year time frame forecasts are extremely optimistic. However in a 10 year time frame I think we'll have some very interesting viable products. We probably have no idea today what those viable products will look like.