It's hard to decide based on any kind of published data because so much chance is involved. And it's hard to decide based on first-hand experience because you can't compare a new and 10-year old car. In my case I figured the unexpected maintenance is unlikely to be worse, and I know the expected maintenance will be better.
Well, either we believe the data, or we believe stories (true or not) that people tell us (EVs are more reliable). EVs compared to ICEs are still in the early adopter phase in terms of ironing the kinks out. We've been doing ICE vehicles for what, 100 years?
I don’t doubt the data, but the question is how to use it. When it comes to long tail events like breakdowns there is a big difference between an individual purchasing one car and a large fleet owner purchasing in bulk where the law of large numbers helps remove the variance.
In my anecdotal case, I traded a potentially larger but still small probability of a major breakdown for a guaranteed better maintenance schedule (no oil changes, less brake/rotor work) and no gas station visits. We’ll see how it goes!
