Wouldn’t we just be back to the 1950-1970s again? China bans all trade, except through Hong Kong. The rest of the world doesn’t notice much, China is really poor. Just look at North Korea, that is basically what juche is.
Most of the manufacturing capabilities of the US has completely shifted over to china. So there would be damage to everyone now. I'm just asking about the extent of the damage. Is survival possible?
Also I'm not saying ban all trade. Just ban all trade with the US. This would be the retaliatory tactic as that's where the pressure is coming from as china is directly challenging the US for the top spot in the economic hierarchy.
China would be back to where it was 40 years ago. Yes, we will have to open up factories to produce cheap plastic things, but no, we won't miss China for very long. They aren't as essential as they think they are.
Because the circumstance is different. China also did not do this before. I'm more talking about embargo on the entire US via china. China can still trade with the rest of the world.
China used Hong Kong as a neutral trading ground when it was closed off (to sell things and import things), which is why much of China's industrial capacity was built up in the Pearl Delta region. If China closed up again, they could be using Hong Kong again like they did in the past, especially if they keep it separate from the rest of mainland administration like they do today. But it isn't guaranteed.
Times change. A typical Chinese metropolis completely dwarfs hong Kong. That's why China was willing to back pedal on the autonomy deal for hong Kong because its no longer means much as an economic powerhouse. Almost every other Chinese city has left it in the dust.
You know this, but a lot of people are just behind on the current economic reality. Not surprising given the speed at which china moves.
Hong Kong is still much more open than any city in the PRC for foreigners. If you care about trade, doing trade in Shanghai, Yiwu, Wuhan, etc...it isn't going to be as easy as it is Hong Kong even if it just means getting a visa and converting your capital into RMB.
Compare Pudong (or Beijing, or any PRC city) airport to HK airport. You can tell the commercial activity between each is on a different level, and that's just an analogy for how things work in China.
