British manufacturing is still in decline, e.g. Bloomberg published a graph yesterday showing how the British car industry output shrunk by half since Brexit in 2016.
Brexit didn't happen in 2016, just the vote to begin the process, so the fact that Bloomberg are making this claim is misleading. Additionally when Brexit actually did get implemented it's had no effect on trade, in fact trade with the EU is up slightly. But that's all expected for anything to do with the UK in the media these days. They will keep lying and manipulating people on this topic forever.
You don't need a final legislative change to impact inward investment and manufacturing location when everyone knows it's coming. The Brexit vote hit investment confidence and manufacturing long before the final withdrawal agreement because the writing was on the wall and manufacturers avoid risk.
"No effect on trade" is definitely not true, I've personally had multiple exporting clients go bust due to trade restrictions and even if their volume of trade is exactly replaced, the balance and make up of trade is different (it isn't just that, however).
No it didn't. The economy was growing at the time of the vote and continued to grow after it, a bit faster even. Unemployment hit record lows.
You may be thinking of the predictions of the remain campaign which very heavily featured the idea that even the vote itself, without any actual legal changes, would trigger a recession due to "uncertainty". But that was wrong, it never happened.
Check the trade stats for yourself. Trade is down but that's because of the huge damage of lockdowns and other terrible policies. Brexit would show up as a reduction in trade with the EU faster than elsewhere, but that didn't happen, the proportion remained about the same. This data comes from the government itself. Seeing any Brexit effect in the recorded data just isn't possible.
That's surprising given that even most leave campaigners accepted that there would be some impact, no but in the end it seems the single market was basically a mirage. It never did much for services which is the bulk of the UK economy.
Again, if you don't believe me, check the data for yourself.
The report admits that the trade was affected by Brexit and other factors and it's difficult to separate one cause from the other. The report also notes that the way data is tracked and compiled changed since Brexit.
The trade with the EU in pounds was highest in 2022, and lower in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019. The report says it's not adjusted to inflation. In terms of % of the total trade, it's the lowest ever in 2022.
It says the same thing I just said. Did you read the report or just the summary? The summary looks like some civil service bias, as it doesn't actually state the most important facts to know clearly. But the report itself does make it clear.
Look at the actual PDF, in particular the graph on page 12 (JIM7/JIM8). This is inflation adjusted goods trade. As you can see Brexit has had no impact whatsoever. Inflation adjusted goods imports are about where they were in 2018. Inflation adjusted exports are about where they were in Jan 2020.
There was a very brief drop in both when the new controls came in. The disruption lasted only a period of months before trade resumed as before.
In other words, there's nothing to see here. This is the opposite of what was stated as 100% certainty by supposed economic experts. Anyone who said before the vote that leaving wouldn't have bad economic consequences was roundly shat upon as a expertise-denying dolt. Yet they were correct.
In terms of % of the total trade, it's the lowest ever in 2022.
The report states clearly: "The proportion of the UK’s total exports going to the EU has generally been declining gradually over the last 15-20 years". It's due to the rise of China/India as more important trading partners, so that would be expected even if the UK had stayed in.
Now look at the graph on page 15. It shows a smooth long term decline in the EU's importance as a trading partner. In particular there was no drop in relative exports to the EU after Brexit, again, despite clear promises that it'd have a huge effect.
What we can see from the report you cited is two things:
1. What I said is correct. Brexit has had no impact on trade. This shows up clearly when using inflation adjusted statistics - it's all a continuation of prior long term trends. Therefore by implication, EU membership was useless for the economy and the entire basis of the Remain campaign was therefore a lie (but did they realize that?!)
2. It's very easy to be misled by Remain bias in the establishment. The summary for "statistics on EU-UK trade" doesn't mention the lack of Brexit impact anywhere despite it being the most important result by far, with the result that you thought you were contradicting me without doing so.
Feel free to omit the "Brexit" word from my comment and just consider it saying "auto manufacturing lost 50% of the output since 2016", I have zero doubts it was declining before that year too.
Then it turned around and entered a period of decline until 2021, when it started growing again.
The big impacts on UK auto production since 2000 have been the GFC, lockdowns and then the semiconductor supply crisis caused by the lockdowns (in 2021).
It may be worth reflecting on why you were so 100% sure about it being in decline before 2016. Where did you get that impression? Probably places like Bloomberg, whose goal is to create ideological converts, not inform.
