To be fair, the UN itself is revealing its own theatrical aspects. What would the ceasefire have done at the end of the day? Would the UN kick Israel out if they continue the war despite a UNSC vote? Would the UN somehow force Israel to stop fighting? Would countries go to war with Israel specifically to uphold the UNSC vote?
When push comes to shove the UN has very little power here and is at risk of going the way of the League of Nations if it pushes too hard without having any meaningful enforcement mechanisms.
> Would the UN kick Israel out if they continue the war despite a UNSC vote?
Unlikely. Is there even a process for the UN to kick members out? What good would it do anyway? At most, they get demoted to a non-voting member, but probably the US and UK won't both vote against them in the security council, so do they really need a general assembly vote?
> Would countries go to war with Israel specifically to uphold the UNSC vote?
No, but they might enact a no-fly zone, or do a peace keeping mission with lots of possible rules of engagement.
But the UN is really a means for the powerful countries to justify their extraterritorial actions, when there's enough concensus and the other powers don't care enough to turn away the rubber stamp. It does some other important stuff, but if the UN had significant power in the Israel/Palestine conflict, there's a series of adopted resolutions that could have been de facto enforced.
> No, but they might enact a no-fly zone, or do a peace keeping mission with lots of possible rules of engagement
I'm not sure how that would work here. Given that they are primarily Israeli jets in the air, UN member states would need to be willing to shoot down Israeli jets to enforce the no-fly zone.
> if the UN had significant power in the Israel/Palestine conflict, there's a series of adopted resolutions that could have been de facto enforced
Now you got me curious. What are those existing resolutions they could reach for? Is it mainly just enforcement related to economic sanctions and similar non-military actions?
> I'm not sure how that would work here. Given that they are primarily Israeli jets in the air, UN member states would need to be willing to shoot down Israeli jets to enforce the no-fly zone.
Sure, but enforcing a no-fly zone isn't going to war. And I'm sure they'd shoot down Hamas jets as well, so it's fair.
> What are those existing resolutions they could reach for?
There's a big list of resolutions [1], resolution 54 [2] from the security council in 1948 ordering everyone to desist from further military action is probably technically still in force and applicable.
In the general assembly, you've got resolution 181 [3] which sets a partition plan for Mandatory Palestine of 1947 which didn't happen. And there's many years of annual calls for Israel to withdrawl from the occupied territories, etc, between about 1967 and about 1984. Unfortunately, many of the Wikipedia links to general council resolutions don't currently work, so I'm relying on titles.
Anyway, if the UN orders a partition in 1947, and it hasn't happened by 2023, but they still say oh hey, do this thing... either the UN doesn't have much power or it isn't willing to use it.
> What would the ceasefire have done at the end of the day?
It would better prove out that the UN is also a psychological operation to a non-trivial degree.
> Would the UN kick Israel out if they continue the war despite a UNSC vote?
The US is the military muscle of the UN, and as far as I can tell, Israel largely controls the US, at least with respect to Israel. Who Epstein worked for, and who has has on tape seems like a relevant aspect of this issue, that hasn't gotten much traction even on TikTok.
> When push comes to shove the UN has very little power here...
The UN, or at least the idea of the UN that has been distributed among the minds of people in Western countries, has massive power. Control people's beliefs and you can control the world, and the US and Israel are both masters at that game. For evidence, I present the conversations that take place on social media, including HN.
> ...and is at risk of going the way of the League of Nations if it pushes too hard without having any meaningful enforcement mechanisms.
Dare to dream! I can't think of any "reasonably" likely scenario how that could come about, but maybe I lack imagination.
I do however think the decades long psy op that Israel and the US have had going in this specific region is at serious risk though. However, I do not underestimate the "Public Relations / Journalism / etc" skills of who we're dealing with - I think one well designed "event" could easily put most people right back into their trance.
> Dare to dream! I can't think of any "reasonably" likely scenario how that could come about, but maybe I lack imagination.
Its definitely unlikely in the near future, though it will die eventually and likely will happen quickly. I don't see many ways that happens soon, though depending how serious UN member states actually consider the war in Gaza, they could walk away seeing either how useless the UN is when one state can veto or when it becomes clear that a UN without teeth is only useful during times of peace.
I think one overlooked aspect of the UN is that it’s a way to gather a lot of diplomacy in one place. A constant mingling opportunity, if you will. As ugly as it is, still seems valuable to me. Therefore I don’t think it will be easily abolished.
Its one of those things with history that I always wonder about. Was a similar sentiment common shortly before the League of Nations fell apart?
I also don't expect the UN to dissolve anytime soon, but I can't really put any reasoning behind that other than it feeling crazy to think the UN could be gone tomorrow or 6 months from now.
Presumably, if enough nations take real issue with Israel's war they could get frustrated enough with political roadblocks and general lack of accountability and enforcement that they decide to walk away. If a few walk it may not take much for it to quietly slip away.
When push comes to shove the UN has very little power here and is at risk of going the way of the League of Nations if it pushes too hard without having any meaningful enforcement mechanisms.