> Except the reason why we dont all just killed each other yet have nothing to do with risk or cost of killing someone

Most of us don't want to.

Most of those who do, don't know enough to actually do it.

Sometimes such people get into power, and they use new inventions like the then-new-pesticide Zyklon B to industrialise killing.

Last year an AI found 40k novel chemical agents, and because they're novel, the agencies that would normally stop bad actors from getting dangerous substances, would generally not notice the problem.

LLMs can read research papers and write code. A sufficiently capable LLM can recreate that chemical discovery AI.

The only reasons I'm even willing to list this chain, is that the researchers behind that chemical AI have spent most of the intervening time making those agencies aware of the situation, and I expect the agencies to be ready before a future LLM reaches the threshold for reproducing that work.

Everything you say does make sense, except those people who able to get equipment to produce those chemicals and have funding to do something like that - they dont really need AI help here. There are plenty dangerous chemicals already well known to humanity and some dont actually take anything regulated to produce "except" complicated and expensive lab equipment.

Again difficulty of production of poisons and chemicals it's not what prevent mass murdering around the globe.

Complexity and cost are just two of the things that inhibit these attacks.

Three letter agencies knowing who's buying a suspicious quantity from the list of known precursors, that stops quite a lot of the others.

AI in general reduces cost and complexity, that's kind of the point of having it. (For example, a chemistry degree is expensive in both time and money). Right now using an LLM[0] to decide what to get and how to use it is almost certainly more dangerous for the user than anyone else — but this is a moving goal, and the question there has to be "how to we delay this capability for as long as possible, and at the same time how do we prepare to defend against the capability when it does arrive?"

[0] I really hope that includes even GPT-4 before the red-teaming efforts to make it not give detailed instructions for how to cause harm

>And everything LLM can come up with will be exactly the same information you can find in any fiction detective book or TV series about crime.

As Nathan states:

>And further, I argued that the Red Team project that I participated in did not suggest that they were on-track to achieve the level of control needed

>Without safety advances, I warned that the next generation of models might very well be too dangerous to release

Seems like each generation of models is getting more capable of thinking, beyond just regurgitating.

I dont disagree with his points, but you completely miss the point of my post. People dont need an AI advise to commit crime and kill others. Nonestly humans they're pretty good at it using technology of 1941.

You don't have bunch of cold blood killers going around not just because police is so good and killers are dumb and need AI help. It's because you live in functioning state where society have enough resources so people happy enough to instead go and kill each other in Counter Strike or Fortnite.

I totally agree that AGI could be a dangerous tech, but it's will require autonomity where it can manipulate real world. So far GPT with API access is very far from that point.

If you have ChatGPT API access you can have it write code and bridge that to other external APIs. Without some guard rails an AI is like a toddler with a loaded gun. They don't understand the context of their actions. They can produce dangerous output if asked for it but also if asked for something else entirely.

The danger also doesn't need to be an AI generating code to hack the Gibson. It could also be things like "how do I manipulate someone to do something". Asking an AI for a marketing campaign isn't necessarily amoral. Asking it how to best harass someone into committing self-harm is.