> EDIT: It's also theoretically possible that Hamas would surrender and/or free all the hostages. I think that's pretty unlikely but we'll see.
My best case would be that Hamas exchanges their hostages as they have many times before. Preferrable Hamas releases all the hostages, and in exchange the Hamas leadership (the top leadership, 100s maybe) gets safe passage to somewhere else - go to a Qatar or somewhere not directly adjacent. And then the PA takes over Gaza with international peacekeepers and we drive towards a 2-state solution aggressively.
We would need Netanyahu sidelined for that as well - that guy has long boosted Hamas just to weaken Palestinian moderates and has aggressively expanded the settlements as well as opposed multiple US presidents when the pushed for a solution.
My best case would be that Hamas exchanges their hostages as they have many times before. Preferrable Hamas releases all the hostages, and in exchange the Hamas leadership (the top leadership, 100s maybe) gets safe passage to somewhere else - go to a Qatar or somewhere not directly adjacent. And then the PA takes over Gaza with international peacekeepers and we drive towards a 2-state solution aggressively.
We would need Netanyahu sidelined for that as well - that guy has long boosted Hamas just to weaken Palestinian moderates and has aggressively expanded the settlements as well as opposed multiple US presidents when the pushed for a solution.
Personally, I am a big fan of the Geneva Initiative as the outline of a 2-state solution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Initiative