You forgot all the pending African crisis. Probably a few more in North Africa as well. Food costs have hit the threshold where global instability in poor regions is high.

Also possibly Pakistan

Great run down both of you. When you put it like that it does look a lot more likely.

The UN food price index is a great predictor of global instability. The last time it spiked we had the Arab spring. Looks like more trouble in the Middle East this time too.

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Mm, I love that kind of historical measure thing, where you can find some correlations, a simple metric that syncs with huge real world consequences.

It shows the fundamental nature of economics, and how everything is connected, and how people's behavior in crises is surprisingly predictable. Thanks for sharing that! :)