What isn't obvious at first glance is that humans are actually really, really good drivers on average. Humans regularly achieve seven 9s on a per mile basis. You're looking at another couple of 9s on top to be clearly and demonstrably safer without very large rollouts or lots of time for analysis.
Yep. But almost all collisions that occur are due to preventable human error; speeding, drunk driving, sleepy driving, road rage, distracted driving. So a system that met human abilities, or a system that fell short in ways that could be accommodated by simple changes in the way we drive, would already be vastly superior in terms of outcomes simply by dint of not having to deal with the human condition while also operating a vehicle.
I put the word just in scare quotes preciously to hint at this, but just to be clear; I don't expect that self driving vehicles are inevitable, or that our efforts won't plateau and fall short. But I do think that people overlook that many of the situations these systems presently struggle with are also dangerous obstacles for human drivers. We don't bother to fix them now because it wouldn't do much to lower the overall risk of fatality. But if we want vehicle fatalities to be a thing of the past, well, its probably much easier to simplify the road for use with machine systems than it is to keep people from getting mad, drunk, tired, or bored.
