Probably much higher than you suspect. Making password haikus is an obvious idea which has been suggested many times before.
I'm sure that even with a great statistical model of password haikus (say an LLM) yours would still be one in a billion which still seems unlikely, but a cracking cluster can try billions per second.
In these cases it's very easy to have security that depends on the odds that a powerful attacker just hasn't gotten around to seriously trying the broad class of predictable generation schemes you've used.
