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> pair it to use excess energy for carbon fuels synthesis

Is de novo gasoline or diesel synthesis profitable at proximate prices?



Not at the moment. IMO the prospects aren't good, due to the low efficiency (high energy cost) and high equipment cost. There are start-ups working on it (ex: Prometheus Fuels [0], Twelve [1], Synhelion [2], honorable mention to Terraform Industries [3] which is targeting methane).

Everything that can be electrified, will be electrified, because it's more efficient. It seems like shipping & aviation are probably the hold-outs.

I used to think this was the way, especially for balancing the grid, but the more I read [4-7], the more it looks like batteries will be used for fluctuations <1 day, and demand adaptation for longer periods. Some of that adaptive demand may wind up being used for hydrocarbon synthesis, but I don't expect it to compete with fossil fuels for a long time, if ever.

[0] https://prometheusfuels.com/

[1] https://www.twelve.co/

[2] https://synhelion.com/

[3] https://www.terraformindustries.com/

[4] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100051

[5] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.07.007

[6] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2019.11.009

[7] https://www.liebreich.com/the-clean-hydrogen-ladder-now-upda...


Direct air capture + electrolysis for hydrogen is a Rube Goldberg machine with ridiculously low efficiency.

As for profitable, it's perfectly profitable for meeting its goals of predatory delay. The longer fossil fuel companies can string along useful idiots, the longer they can continue being profitable.


It depends on whether direct air capture of CO₂ can be cost effective. If so, then it can happen. E-fuels will just be renewable energy plus water and air. That is likely to be pretty cheap. If DAC isn't doable, then it probably can't be profitable.


No. And its a huge waste of energy. E-fuels are more likely a fairy tale you tell people so they won't buy electric cars.

Where I live, the fossil gas industry has been running ads promoting green hydrogen, and of course fossil gas as a clean "bridge technology" to H2. So just keep running that gas heating system, cuz it'll switchover to H2, for sure, at some decade in the future.


We also need to stop asking if it is profitable to save humanity.


> We also need to stop asking if it is profitable to save humanity

Profitability approximates economic sustainability.

If this fuel costs $100/gallon, it's cheaper and thus more sustainable to aggressively subsidize EVs before synthesising fuel. If, on the other hand, it costs $6/gallon, funding its production with a tax on fossil fuels makes sense.

Rejecting reality "to save humanity" is a false economy.


No, this is very wrong. You always need to be asking this, because you want to be using the most effective approach towards your goals, and price signals are irreplaceable tool to determine the effectiveness.


Absolutely wrong. If it isn't profitable it won't happen, society will just choose to kill itself. We need to make it profitable.




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