I didn't simply increase the number of doors— I created a visual of a more extreme version of the problem without making it so extreme that it's abstract. That sort of thing helps a lot of visual thinkers and I'm not sure why you're being so pissy about it not helping you. Frankly, I'm sorry I tried.
I'm not being pissy about it, I'm explaining why this approach doesn't click for me. I'm not sure why, after being told that this type of explanation doesn't work for me and being told exactly why, you are surprised when I say that again. I'll try and help explain why in more detail.
The point is that for me the key bit of information is yet again missing from your explanation.
> Picture, in your mind or maybe draw on paper, 20 brightly lit doors in a row where 19 are labeled L and one is labeled W. Out of those 20 doors, one door gets randomly selected. It's almost certainly going to be an L. After choosing it, the lights go out above 18 of the other L doors so only the W door, and the L door you probably chose, remained lit.
It's extremely important the reasoning behind why the 18 other doors are picked is highlighted.
The game show deal or no deal has basically this, but with 20 or 25 or something boxes. At the end they get to switch - and it doesn't make a difference. It wouldn't make a difference if the host opened the boxes or the contestants. It wouldn't make a difference if the host opened them and knew what was inside.
What would make a difference is if the host opens the boxes while deliberately avoiding opening the jackpot.
Lets reframe deal or no deal in a way that highlights the key part for me:
There are 25 boxes with sums from 1p to £1M in them. Nobody knows what's in them. You pick one randomly, and the others are placed in a pile. You now get to choose one of two things:
1. Keep the box you chose randomly
2. Take the highest value box out of the pile of 24
What if there were 24 boxes worth nothing and one with £1M in, does your strategy change?
What if there were 23 boxes with nothing and one with £1M in, does your strategy change?
