> They almost all roll their eyes aggressively at these sorts of prognostications. I'd say 90+% either laugh or roll their eyes. Why is that?
I literally think they haven't even given it any thought. Who seriously tries to extrapolate beyond 5 years in any field? Even to most doomers, 5 years seems safe.
What about 10? 20? 30? Remember, one of the very first things people tried to do was create a self-directed, self-optimizing AI with AutoGPT. How far forward can you project through how many attempts like this with progressively more sophisticated systems before this might produce an outcome that could be considered catastrophic?
If your answer is anything but an emphatic "infinity", then welcome to the doomers. Now we're just debating when and under circumstances this might take place, and not whether it might happen at all.
I literally think they haven't even given it any thought. Who seriously tries to extrapolate beyond 5 years in any field? Even to most doomers, 5 years seems safe.
What about 10? 20? 30? Remember, one of the very first things people tried to do was create a self-directed, self-optimizing AI with AutoGPT. How far forward can you project through how many attempts like this with progressively more sophisticated systems before this might produce an outcome that could be considered catastrophic?
If your answer is anything but an emphatic "infinity", then welcome to the doomers. Now we're just debating when and under circumstances this might take place, and not whether it might happen at all.