There's something to be said for not going full steam ahead when we don't have a strong idea of the outcome. This idea that progress is an intrinsic good therefore we must continue the march of technology is a fallacy. It is extreme hubris to think that we will be able to control a potential superintelligence. The cost of being wrong is hard to overstate.
>These systems stand zero chance of jumping from 0 to 100 because complicated systems don't do that.
This doesn't track with the lessons learned from LLMs. The obscene amounts of compute thrown at modern networks changes the calculus completely. ChatGPT essentially existed for years in the form of GPT-3, but no one knew what they had. The lesson to learn is that capabilities can far outpace expectations when obscene amounts of computation are in play.
>The people trying to regulate AI are concentrating economic upside into a handful of companies.
Yes, its clear this is the motivations for much of the anti-doom folks. They don't want to be left out of the fun and profit. Their argument is downstream from this. No, doing things public isn't the answer to safety, just like doing bioengineering research or nuclear research in public isn't the answer to safety.
>These systems stand zero chance of jumping from 0 to 100 because complicated systems don't do that.
This doesn't track with the lessons learned from LLMs. The obscene amounts of compute thrown at modern networks changes the calculus completely. ChatGPT essentially existed for years in the form of GPT-3, but no one knew what they had. The lesson to learn is that capabilities can far outpace expectations when obscene amounts of computation are in play.
>The people trying to regulate AI are concentrating economic upside into a handful of companies.
Yes, its clear this is the motivations for much of the anti-doom folks. They don't want to be left out of the fun and profit. Their argument is downstream from this. No, doing things public isn't the answer to safety, just like doing bioengineering research or nuclear research in public isn't the answer to safety.